Last week, I made the case for patience. For slowing down, for stepping away from the emotional pulse of the bookies’ board, and building a methodical approach to betting that’s grounded in form, logic, and timing. This week, I want to take that idea a step further—into the realm of value.
Because backing winners is nice.
But backing value winners is how you turn betting into a business.
What Is a Value Bet, Really?
Put simply, a value bet occurs when a horse’s chance of winning is better than the odds suggest.
Let’s say you believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning (that’s 3/1 in odds terms), but the bookies are offering 8/1. That’s value. Whether it wins today is almost irrelevant—what matters is that you’d take that bet every day of the week and make a long-term profit.
Value betting is where sharp bettors quietly get rich while the crowd piles into the obvious short-priced runners.
The Illusion of Big Form Points
Now, in my own system, I rate horses on a point scale based on form, class, conditions, and several proprietary variables. Often, at the top of the racecard, you’ll find runners rated 12 or 13 points—big numbers that scream “Bet me!” to the form readers.
But at this time of year—late spring into early summer—we’re in a seasonal transition. The National Hunt season has only just closed. The Flat season is still gearing up. And many of those high-point horses haven’t seen a racecourse in months.
Old form is no form.
The 12-point horse may well have posted that number back in October on heavy going in a Class 5 at Redcar. But today, it’s a June sprint on quick ground at Windsor against race-fit rivals. How relevant is that 12-pointer really?
Too many punters fall in love with the top-line numbers and forget to check the recency and relevance of that data. But this, my friend, is where the value lives.
The Power of Recent Race Fitness
I spend a good chunk of time each morning combing through racecards looking for something most punters ignore: race fitness. Horses who’ve run recently—within the last 14 to 21 days—and shown progression, even if that’s just a solid finish or an improved position in a stronger race.
These horses may only score 4s or 5s on my rating scale right now. They don’t leap off the page. But they’re quietly improving. They’ve got a run under their belts. They’re sharp. They’re often carrying a low weight, and crucially—they’re overlooked by the market.
That’s your value bet.
How to Spot a Value Bet in the Wild
Here’s how I typically zero in on them:
- Ignore the Top of the Form Table: Start by setting aside the “obvious” runners—especially if they haven’t run in the last 60+ days.
- Look for Recency First: Prioritise horses that have raced in the last 2–3 weeks, particularly if their form figures show a mild upward curve (e.g., 6-5-3 or 5-4-2).
- Scan the Draw and Conditions: Is today’s race tactically different? Are they drawn well? Is the going favourable?
- Check for Progressive Trainers: Smaller yards in form often slip under the radar. A recent winner returning quickly is a classic “sharpened up” value play.
- Compare Odds to Implied Chance: You don’t need maths GCSEs to do this. If you think your selection has a 1 in 5 chance of winning (20%), and the odds are 10/1 (implied chance = 9%), that’s value.
The Seasonal Edge: Late Spring Gold
This period—from May through early July—is rich in opportunities. Horses from National Hunt yards returning to the flat. Two-year-olds stepping into handicaps with untapped potential. Horses with pipe-openers under their belt quietly taking on rusty opposition.
Every race card has at least one or two horses that are race-fit, under-the-radar, and screaming value—if you’re willing to look past the obvious.
A Quiet Kind of Joy
There’s a particular satisfaction in finding these horses. They’re rarely the ones the pundits are talking about. They’re not wearing the favourite’s sash. But when they deliver—and they often do—it’s not just the odds you’ve beaten. It’s the market. The noise. The hype.
And those are the most satisfying wins of all.
Conclusion: Don’t Bet More. Bet Better.
In the long run, profits don’t come from betting more races. They come from betting better races.
From finding those moments where your analysis cuts through the clutter, where the market has mispriced a runner, and where your £10 stake returns £50, £80, or even £150—not because you got lucky, but because you saw what others missed.
That’s the value edge.
That’s the professional’s path.
And just like everything else in this game—it begins with patience, discipline, and the willingness to dig deeper than the surface of the form card.